Projects
Projects: Projects for Investigator |
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| Reference Number | NIA_NGGT0075 | |
| Title | Enhanced Operational Forecasting | |
| Status | Completed | |
| Energy Categories | Fossil Fuels: Oil Gas and Coal(Oil and Gas, Refining, transport and storage of oil and gas) 100%; | |
| Research Types | Applied Research and Development 100% | |
| Science and Technology Fields | ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY (Mechanical, Aeronautical and Manufacturing Engineering) 100% | |
| UKERC Cross Cutting Characterisation | Not Cross-cutting 100% | |
| Principal Investigator |
Project Contact No email address given National Grid Gas Transmission |
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| Award Type | Network Innovation Allowance | |
| Funding Source | Ofgem | |
| Start Date | 01 September 2015 | |
| End Date | 01 May 2016 | |
| Duration | 8 months | |
| Total Grant Value | £322,200 | |
| Industrial Sectors | Technical Consultancy | |
| Region | London | |
| Programme | Network Innovation Allowance | |
| Investigators | Principal Investigator | Project Contact , National Grid Gas Transmission (100.000%) |
| Web Site | http://www.smarternetworks.org/project/NIA_NGGT0075 |
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| Objectives | This project aims to research, develop and deliver an offline, prototype, supply and demand forecasting tool with the as yet unproven functionality described in the Scope (above) to continue to provide effective operational strategies to the GNCC, as well as facilitate the market through external publication, in light of an increasingly volatile gas market. The tool will also be fully compatible with NGGT’s simulation and decision support packages, used to develop such physical and commercial strategies. The delivery of an offline, prototype, supply and demand forecasting tool with the functionality described in the Scope (above), tested and assessed against the current range of operational forecasting tools in terms of accuracy (including against the demand forecasting incentive already in place), ability to recreate market behaviours and functionality (including compatibility and ease of use with existing downstream processes/tools). | |
| Abstract | Short term supply and demand forecasting is a critical first step in the safe, efficient and reliable operation of the gas National Transmission System (NTS), used to prepare operational strategies for the Gas National Control Centre (GNCC) and to facilitate the market via external publication. Financial incentives on forecast accuracy further underline their importance. However, forecasting to sufficient accuracy over the week-ahead time horizon is becoming increasingly difficult as a direct result of an increasingly volatile gas market. Decreasing UK continental shelf supplies, increasing price sensitive supplies and demands, greater and increasingly volatile gas-fired power station demand and decreased reliance on low pressure storage are all contributing to increasing day-to-day and within-day supply and demand volatility. The result then is a significant risk that existing forecasting tools, which provide a limited treatment of the effects listed above, will become unfit for purpose. This in turn would compromise Gas System Operation s (GSO’s) ability to adequately prepare the network, leading to rising consumer costs both through inefficient day-to-day and within-day utilisation of assets and commercial options as well as increased constraint management and trading costs associated with unforeseen, and therefore unprepared for, market conditions. This project aims to gather detailed requirements for, research, develop and deliver a new prototype solution capable of providing sufficiently accurate combined supply and demand forecasts over the week-ahead time horizon given an increasingly volatile gas market. In particular, the project will investigate enhanced modelling of those behaviours that limit current forecast accuracy (e. g price sensitive supply and demands and interactions between gas and electricity markets) as well as provide new, more detailed and computationally intensive outputs (e. g forecast confidence levels and within-day flow rates), all of which are new and as yet unproven capabilities for GSO’s short-term planning process. If successful, the outcomes of this project could then form the basis of a systematized, online tool through the iGMS Evolution Project to allow greater access to the tool, for instance within the GNCC. The prototype tool will be developed with Baringa Partners LLP, who have a proven record of gas market modelling. Detailed requirements will be gathered with key stakeholders within National Grid, followed by periods of approach definition, prototyping and calibration before the tool can be fully embedded and tested against the current suite of supply and demand forecasting tools.Note : Project Documents may be available via the ENA Smarter Networks Portal using the Website link above | |
| Publications | (none) |
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| Final Report | (none) |
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| Added to Database | 14/08/18 | |
